Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Chris Gutierrez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1391

Elo1508

Geraldo de FreitasvsChris GutierrezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2019Montevideo, Uruguay

Official fight result

Chris Gutierrez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGeraldo de Freitas: WrestlervsChris Gutierrez: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Geraldo de Freitas wins(74.8%)

Actual result: Chris Gutierrez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Geraldo de Freitas at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Gutierrez has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Geraldo de Freitas has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Geraldo de Freitas

Red Corner

Chris Gutierrez

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1391

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geraldo de Freitas

oldest →

vs Felipe Colares · Feb 19

vs Tony Gravely · Nov 20

latest

Chris Gutierrez

oldest →

vs Alatengheili · Oct 23

vs Song Yadong · Dec 23

vs Quang Le · Aug 24

vs John Castaneda · Apr 25

vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geraldo de FreitasMetricChris Gutierrez

3.67

Strikes / min

4.40

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

50%

Strike defense

63%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

0.30

59%

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05evenly matched on net striking+1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Geraldo de FreitasChris Gutierrez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Geraldo de Freitas(3 fights)Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -116.1|Blue +116.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geraldo de FreitasTargetChris Gutierrez

By target zone

27% acc · 65%

Head

39% acc · 38%

83% acc · 25%

Body

86% acc · 13%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

73% acc · 50%

By position

35% acc · 95%

Distance

53% acc · 83%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

67% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Geraldo de Freitas rounds

even

Chris Gutierrez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:44

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:12

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 3Geraldo de Freitas edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:12

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 112

Sig Strikes

48 / 86

27.7%

Sig Str %

60%

57 / 134

Total Strikes

49 / 87

2 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

25%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

2:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Gutierrez	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 0
1	Geraldo de Freitas	8 / 31	13 / 38	1 / 4
2	Chris Gutierrez	14 / 17	15 / 18	0 / 0
2	Geraldo de Freitas	2 / 14	10 / 24	1 / 2
3	Chris Gutierrez	20 / 40	20 / 40	1 / 2
3	Geraldo de Freitas	30 / 67	34 / 72	0 / 1

Geraldo de Freitas

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Chris Gutierrez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14