← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB R1

Elo1457

Elo1491

Gerald MeerschaertvsRyan JanesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Sunday, February 19, 2017Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:34

Style matchupGerald Meerschaert: Submission grapplervsRyan Janes: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Ryan Janes wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Janes at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Ryan Janes has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Ryan Janes has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Meerschaert

Red Corner

Ryan Janes

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1457

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Ryan Janes

oldest →

vs Keith Berish · Dec 16

vs Jack Marshman · Jul 17

KOvs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald MeerschaertMetricRyan Janes

2.95

Strikes / min

7.69

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

5.53

53%

Strike defense

59%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.35

40%

Takedown defense

58%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 2.65 — meaningful gap+2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gerald MeerschaertRyan Janes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)Ryan Janes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.3|Blue +34.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald MeerschaertTargetRyan Janes

By target zone

40% acc · 67%

Head

38% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

even

Ryan Janes rounds

Round 1Ryan Janes edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 6

Sig Strikes

3 / 8

50%

Sig Str %

37%

5 / 9

Total Strikes

10 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Janes	3 / 8	10 / 16	1 / 1	0
1	Gerald Meerschaert	3 / 6	5 / 9	0 / 0	1

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25

Ryan Janes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4