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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Reinier de Ridder won · SUB R3

Elo1457

Elo1525

Reinier de Ridder editorial illustration

Gerald MeerschaertvsReinier de RidderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Saturday, November 9, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Reinier de Ridder won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:44

Style matchupGerald Meerschaert: Submission grapplervsReinier de Ridder: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Reinier de Ridder wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Reinier de Ridder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Reinier de Ridder at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Meerschaert

Red Corner

Reinier de Ridder

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1457

Elo

1525

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald MeerschaertL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Reinier de RidderL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jan 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · May 25

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 25

KOvs Brendan Allen · Oct 25

vs Caio Borralho · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald MeerschaertMetricReinier de Ridder

2.95

Strikes / min

2.47

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

53%

Strike defense

46%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

2.56

40%

Takedown defense

40%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gerald MeerschaertReinier de Ridder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)Reinier de Ridder(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -68.4|Blue +68.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald MeerschaertTargetReinier de Ridder

By target zone

55% acc · 90%

Head

45% acc · 50%

60% acc · 10%

Body

77% acc · 26%

Leg

82% acc · 24%

By position

50% acc · 73%

Distance

56% acc · 89%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

86% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

even

Reinier de Ridder rounds

Round 1Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:25

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 3Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:18

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 54

Sig Strikes

38 / 66

37.7%

Sig Str %

68.7%

44 / 72

Total Strikes

82 / 114

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 13

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:53

Ctrl Time

3:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Reinier de Ridder	28 / 53	33 / 59	2 / 6	0
1	Gerald Meerschaert	21 / 34	21 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Reinier de Ridder	5 / 6	35 / 39	2 / 6	0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	9 / 17	22 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Reinier de Ridder	5 / 7	14 / 16	1 / 1	1
3	Gerald Meerschaert	0 / 3	1 / 4	0 / 2	0

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25

Reinier de Ridder

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6