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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Michal Oleksiejczuk won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1457

Elo1508

Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Gerald MeerschaertvsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Michal Oleksiejczuk won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:03

Style matchupGerald Meerschaert: Submission grapplervsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins(77.5%)

Actual result: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Michal Oleksiejczuk has lost 75% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Meerschaert

Red Corner

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1457

Elo

1508

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald MeerschaertL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 24

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Michal Oleksiejczuk

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 24

vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald MeerschaertMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk

2.95

Strikes / min

5.85

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

53%

Strike defense

59%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

1.02

40%

Takedown defense

52%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gerald MeerschaertMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.2|Blue +51.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald MeerschaertTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

14% acc · 67%

Head

39% acc · 78%

Body

100% acc · 22%

50% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

19% acc · 100%

Distance

35% acc · 48%

Clinch

Ground

60% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

even

Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds

Round 1Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 16

Sig Strikes

23 / 51

18%

Sig Str %

45%

3 / 16

Total Strikes

23 / 51

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	23 / 51	23 / 51	0 / 0	0
1	Gerald Meerschaert	3 / 16	3 / 16	0 / 3	0

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18