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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Joe Pyfer won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1457

Elo1553

Gerald MeerschaertvsJoe PyferUFC Prediction Result

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2023Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Joe Pyfer won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:15

Style matchupGerald Meerschaert: Submission grapplervsJoe Pyfer: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Joe Pyfer wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Joe Pyfer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Pyfer at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Joe Pyfer enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Joe Pyfer has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Meerschaert

Red Corner

Joe Pyfer

Blue Corner

+172

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1457

Elo

1553

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Joe PyferW4 streak

oldest →

vs Jack Hermansson · Feb 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 24

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 25

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Oct 25

KOvs Israel Adesanya · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald MeerschaertMetricJoe Pyfer

2.95

Strikes / min

3.52

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

53%

Strike defense

52%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

1.45

40%

Takedown defense

62%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gerald MeerschaertJoe Pyfer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)Joe Pyfer(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -96.5|Blue +96.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald MeerschaertTargetJoe Pyfer

By target zone

8% acc · 10%

Head

38% acc · 43%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 57%

100% acc · 70%

Leg

By position

48% acc · 100%

Distance

55% acc · 43%

Clinch

Ground

62% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

even

Joe Pyfer rounds

Round 1Joe Pyfer edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 21

Sig Strikes

14 / 24

47%

Sig Str %

58%

10 / 21

Total Strikes

14 / 24

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Pyfer	14 / 24	14 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Gerald Meerschaert	10 / 21	10 / 21	0 / 0	0

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25

Joe Pyfer

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8