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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jack Hermansson won · SUB R1

Elo1457

Elo1480

Gerald MeerschaertvsJack HermanssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, December 15, 2018Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Jack Hermansson won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:25

Style matchupGerald Meerschaert: Submission grapplervsJack Hermansson: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Hermansson at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jack Hermansson has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Meerschaert

Red Corner

Jack Hermansson

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1457

Elo

1480

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald MeerschaertMetricJack Hermansson

2.95

Strikes / min

5.15

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

53%

Strike defense

56%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

1.48

40%

Takedown defense

80%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.92 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gerald MeerschaertJack Hermansson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.8|Blue +23.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -55.0|Blue +55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald MeerschaertTargetJack Hermansson

By target zone

0% acc

Head

69% acc · 90%

100% acc · 100%

Body

75% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

0% acc

Distance

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

Ground

69% acc · 93%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

even

Jack Hermansson rounds

Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:15

41Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 2

Sig Strikes

41 / 59

50%

Sig Str %

69%

1 / 2

Total Strikes

53 / 73

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

3:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jack Hermansson	41 / 59	53 / 73	1 / 2	1
1	Gerald Meerschaert	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 2	0

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19