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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB R3

Elo1457

Elo1494

Gerald MeerschaertvsDeron WinnUFC Prediction Result

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Saturday, March 7, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:13

Style matchupGerald Meerschaert: Submission grapplervsDeron Winn: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Gerald Meerschaert wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gerald Meerschaert at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Deron Winn has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).
Gerald Meerschaert has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Meerschaert

Red Corner

Deron Winn

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1457

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'6"

195.58 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Deron Winn

oldest →

vs Eric Spicely · Jun 19

vs Darren Stewart · Oct 19

vs Antonio Arroyo · Dec 20

KOvs Phil Hawes · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald MeerschaertMetricDeron Winn

2.95

Strikes / min

4.55

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

6.21

53%

Strike defense

46%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

4.28

40%

Takedown defense

40%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap-1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gerald MeerschaertDeron Winn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)Deron Winn(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.8|Blue +37.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald MeerschaertTargetDeron Winn

By target zone

40% acc · 77%

Head

40% acc · 70%

95% acc · 23%

Body

85% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

46% acc · 94%

Distance

46% acc · 89%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

75% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

even

Deron Winn rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:21

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 187

Sig Strikes

53 / 111

42%

Sig Str %

49%

86 / 188

Total Strikes

53 / 111

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Deron Winn	22 / 45	22 / 45	1 / 1	0
1	Gerald Meerschaert	24 / 63	24 / 64	0 / 0	0
2	Deron Winn	17 / 43	17 / 43	0 / 1	0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	50 / 82	50 / 82	0 / 0	0
3	Deron Winn	14 / 23	14 / 23	0 / 0	0
3	Gerald Meerschaert	12 / 42	12 / 42	1 / 1	1

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25

Deron Winn

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5