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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB R2

Elo1457

Elo1491

Gerald MeerschaertvsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Saturday, March 16, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:23

Style matchupGerald Meerschaert: Submission grapplervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Bryan Barberena enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Bryan Barberena has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Gerald Meerschaert has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Meerschaert

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1457

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Bryan BarberenaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Brown · Mar 22

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald MeerschaertMetricBryan Barberena

2.95

Strikes / min

5.35

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

53%

Strike defense

44%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.13

40%

Takedown defense

50%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gerald MeerschaertBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.8|Blue +34.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald MeerschaertTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

58% acc · 64%

Head

31% acc · 75%

67% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 18%

Leg

38% acc · 25%

By position

65% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 83%

Clinch

Ground

67% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:15

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:48

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 17

Sig Strikes

12 / 37

76.5%

Sig Str %

28%

30 / 36

Total Strikes

25 / 50

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

41.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:03

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Barberena	10 / 25	13 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Gerald Meerschaert	7 / 13	12 / 18	2 / 4	0
2	Bryan Barberena	2 / 12	12 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	4 / 4	18 / 18	1 / 3	2

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19