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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Gerald Harris won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Gerald Harris
Elo1351
Mario Miranda

Gerald HarrisvsMario MirandaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · Wednesday, March 31, 2010Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Harris won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:49

Model Prediction: Gerald Harris wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Gerald Harris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gerald Harris at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gerald Harris has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Gerald Harris has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Harris (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Harris
Red Corner
VS
Mario Miranda
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1490
Elo
1351
46
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald Harris
oldest →
W
KOvs David Branch · Jul 10
L
vs Maiquel Falcao · Nov 10
latest
Mario MirandaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs David Loiseau · Jun 10
L
vs Demian Maia · Aug 10
L
vs Aaron Simpson · Mar 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald HarrisMetricMario Miranda
1.41
Strikes / min
1.96
1.58
Strikes absorbed / min
2.46
62%
Strike defense
36%
2.96
TDs / 15 min
1.02
72%
Takedown defense
54%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes21.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
Gerald HarrisMario Miranda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Gerald Harris(3 fights)Mario Miranda(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.2|Blue -139.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald HarrisTargetMario Miranda

By target zone

17
47% acc · 100%
Head
8
29% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Body
1
33% acc · 6%
0
Leg
7
78% acc · 44%

By position

14
45% acc · 82%
Distance
12
36% acc · 75%
0
Clinch
1
25% acc · 6%
3
50% acc · 18%
Ground
3
100% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Gerald Harris rounds
0
even
0
Mario Miranda rounds
Round 1Gerald Harris edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:07
Knockdowns2
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
1
17 / 37
Sig Strikes
16 / 40
45%
Sig Str %
40%
17 / 37
Total Strikes
33 / 63
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:07
Ctrl Time
0:40

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mario Miranda16 / 4033 / 630 / 00
1Gerald Harris17 / 3717 / 370 / 00

Gerald Harris

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3

Mario Miranda

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4