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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Maiquel Falcao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Gerald HarrisvsMaiquel FalcaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Saturday, November 20, 2010Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Maiquel Falcao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGerald Harris: WrestlervsMaiquel Falcao: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Gerald Harris wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Maiquel Falcao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gerald Harris at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maiquel Falcao has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Harris (53.5%).
Gerald Harris has a 21cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Harris

Red Corner

Maiquel Falcao

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

175 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald HarrisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mario Miranda · Mar 10

KOvs David Branch · Jul 10

latest

Maiquel FalcaoNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald HarrisMetricMaiquel Falcao

1.41

Strikes / min

1.67

1.58

Strikes absorbed / min

0.53

62%

Strike defense

86%

2.96

TDs / 15 min

1.00

72%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

3.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.17Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gerald HarrisMaiquel Falcao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gerald Harris(3 fights)Maiquel Falcao(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald HarrisTargetMaiquel Falcao

By target zone

9% acc · 63%

Head

49% acc · 72%

75% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 24%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

11% acc · 75%

Distance

41% acc · 36%

33% acc · 25%

Clinch

56% acc · 20%

Ground

79% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gerald Harris rounds

even

Maiquel Falcao rounds

Round 1Maiquel Falcao edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:04

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 2Maiquel Falcao edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:50

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:46Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:04

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 61

Sig Strikes

25 / 45

15.3%

Sig Str %

51.7%

8 / 61

Total Strikes

54 / 77

2 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

40%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

4:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Maiquel Falcao	12 / 18	21 / 29	1 / 1	2
1	Gerald Harris	2 / 16	2 / 16	1 / 1	0
2	Maiquel Falcao	10 / 19	30 / 40	0 / 0	1
2	Gerald Harris	3 / 12	3 / 12	1 / 5	0
3	Maiquel Falcao	3 / 8	3 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Gerald Harris	3 / 33	3 / 33	0 / 1	0

Gerald Harris

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3

Maiquel Falcao

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights1