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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Harris won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1490

Elo1372

Gerald HarrisvsDavid BranchUFC Prediction Result

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · Saturday, July 3, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Harris won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:35

Style matchupGerald Harris: WrestlervsDavid Branch: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gerald Harris wins(72.9%)

Actual result: Gerald Harris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gerald Harris at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Harris is a KO finisher (100% of wins). David Branch has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Gerald Harris has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Harris (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gerald Harris

Red Corner

David Branch

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1490

Elo

1372

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gerald Harris

oldest →

KOvs Mario Miranda · Mar 10

vs Maiquel Falcao · Nov 10

latest

David BranchL2 streak

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · May 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Sep 17

KOvs Thiago Santos · Apr 18

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Nov 18

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gerald HarrisMetricDavid Branch

1.41

Strikes / min

1.66

1.58

Strikes absorbed / min

1.91

62%

Strike defense

56%

2.96

TDs / 15 min

2.55

72%

Takedown defense

43%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gerald HarrisDavid Branch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gerald Harris(3 fights)David Branch(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +118.4|Blue -118.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gerald HarrisTargetDavid Branch

By target zone

27% acc · 100%

Head

36% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 30%

Leg

80% acc · 20%

By position

18% acc · 50%

Distance

30% acc · 40%

67% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 60%

50% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gerald Harris rounds

even

David Branch rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:23

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gerald Harris edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control2:29

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Gerald Harris edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control0:58

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 37

Sig Strikes

20 / 39

34.7%

Sig Str %

51.7%

11 / 39

Total Strikes

40 / 60

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:50

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Branch	10 / 17	11 / 18	0 / 0
1	Gerald Harris	4 / 22	4 / 22	1 / 1
2	David Branch	5 / 14	13 / 22	0 / 0
2	Gerald Harris	4 / 11	4 / 12	2 / 2
3	David Branch	5 / 8	16 / 20	0 / 2
3	Gerald Harris	2 / 4	3 / 5	2 / 2

Gerald Harris

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3

David Branch

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9