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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Georges St-Pierre won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1408

Georges St-PierrevsNick DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Georges St-Pierre won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupGeorges St-Pierre: WrestlervsNick Diaz: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Georges St-Pierre wins(89.0%)

Actual result: Georges St-Pierre wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Georges St-Pierre at -545 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Georges St-Pierre enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Georges St-Pierre has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Georges St-Pierre has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nick Diaz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Georges St-Pierre

Red Corner

Nick Diaz

Blue Corner

-545

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+465

(18%)

1491

Elo

1408

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Georges St-PierreW5 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Koscheck · Dec 10

vs Jake Shields · Apr 11

vs Carlos Condit · Nov 12

vs Johny Hendricks · Nov 13

SUBvs Michael Bisping · Nov 17

latest

Nick DiazL2 streak

oldest →

vs BJ Penn · Oct 11

vs Carlos Condit · Feb 12

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Georges St-PierreMetricNick Diaz

3.78

Strikes / min

5.71

1.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

72%

Strike defense

59%

4.16

TDs / 15 min

1.28

83%

Takedown defense

60%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.38evenly matched on net striking+1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Georges St-PierreNick Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Georges St-Pierre(7 fights)Nick Diaz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +82.7|Blue -82.7

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -287.0|Blue +287.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Georges St-PierreTargetNick Diaz

By target zone

56% acc · 66%

Head

19% acc · 46%

81% acc · 21%

Body

66% acc · 46%

82% acc · 13%

Leg

38% acc · 7%

By position

58% acc · 59%

Distance

21% acc · 59%

92% acc · 10%

Clinch

74% acc · 41%

65% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Georges St-Pierre rounds

even

Nick Diaz rounds

Round 1Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns3

Control4:50

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control3:17

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns2

Control1:29

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control2:12

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:56

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 167

Sig Strikes

41 / 136

63.6%

Sig Str %

27.4%

210 / 285

Total Strikes

80 / 176

9 / 16

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

13:44

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nick Diaz	1 / 4	6 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Georges St-Pierre	12 / 21	54 / 68	3 / 3	0
2	Nick Diaz	3 / 20	18 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Georges St-Pierre	18 / 29	41 / 58	1 / 1	0
3	Nick Diaz	15 / 42	17 / 44	0 / 0	0
3	Georges St-Pierre	28 / 54	40 / 67	2 / 5	0
4	Georges St-Pierre	24 / 31	38 / 46	2 / 5	0
4	Nick Diaz	11 / 38	17 / 44	0 / 0	1
5	Nick Diaz	11 / 32	22 / 44	0 / 0	0
5	Georges St-Pierre	23 / 32	37 / 46	1 / 2	0

Georges St-Pierre

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7

Nick Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4