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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Georges St-Pierre won · U-DEC R5
Elo1491
Georges St-Pierre
Elo1490
Jake Shields

Georges St-PierrevsJake ShieldsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Georges St-Pierre won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupGeorges St-Pierre: WrestlervsJake Shields: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Georges St-Pierre wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Georges St-Pierre wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Georges St-Pierre at -455 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Georges St-Pierre enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Georges St-Pierre has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Georges St-Pierre has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Georges St-Pierre has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Georges St-Pierre
Red Corner
VS
Jake Shields
Blue Corner
-455
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+405
(20%)
1491
Elo
1490
45
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Georges St-PierreW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Josh Koscheck · Dec 10
W
vs Carlos Condit · Nov 12
W
vs Nick Diaz · Mar 13
W
vs Johny Hendricks · Nov 13
W
SUBvs Michael Bisping · Nov 17
latest
Jake Shields
oldest →
L
KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Sep 11
W
vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Feb 12
W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 13
W
vs Demian Maia · Oct 13
L
vs Hector Lombard · Mar 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Georges St-PierreMetricJake Shields
3.78
Strikes / min
2.45
1.40
Strikes absorbed / min
1.80
72%
Strike defense
56%
4.16
TDs / 15 min
2.83
83%
Takedown defense
35%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.38Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap+0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1519Strikes52.5 vs 25.0Takedowns3.9 vs 4.0Sub Atts1.29 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Georges St-PierreJake Shields

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Georges St-Pierre(7 fights)Jake Shields(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +3.1|Blue -3.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Layoff
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Georges St-PierreTargetJake Shields

By target zone

54
28% acc · 64%
Head
34
11% acc · 44%
21
47% acc · 25%
Body
27
61% acc · 35%
10
100% acc · 12%
Leg
17
44% acc · 22%

By position

82
34% acc · 96%
Distance
78
20% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 1%
Clinch
0
0% acc
2
40% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Georges St-Pierre rounds
0
even
1
Jake Shields rounds
Round 1Georges St-Pierre edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:04
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 2Georges St-Pierre edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Georges St-Pierre edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:22
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Georges St-Pierre edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:17
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Jake Shields edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:05
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
85 / 245
Sig Strikes
78 / 401
34.8%
Sig Str %
19.2%
92 / 252
Total Strikes
96 / 423
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 6
66.7%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:48
Ctrl Time
0:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jake Shields13 / 7516 / 820 / 10
1Georges St-Pierre17 / 4419 / 460 / 00
2Jake Shields16 / 8317 / 840 / 10
2Georges St-Pierre22 / 4722 / 470 / 00
3Jake Shields14 / 7224 / 820 / 20
3Georges St-Pierre18 / 4822 / 521 / 10
4Georges St-Pierre13 / 4614 / 471 / 10
4Jake Shields14 / 9314 / 930 / 20
5Jake Shields21 / 7825 / 820 / 00
5Georges St-Pierre15 / 6015 / 600 / 10

Georges St-Pierre

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights7

Jake Shields

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7