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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Georges St-Pierre won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1490

Georges St-PierrevsDan HardyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · Saturday, March 27, 2010Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Georges St-Pierre won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Georges St-Pierre wins(83.4%)

Actual result: Georges St-Pierre wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Georges St-Pierre at -650 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Georges St-Pierre enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Georges St-Pierre has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Georges St-Pierre has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Georges St-Pierre

Red Corner

Dan Hardy

Blue Corner

-650

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Georges St-PierreW5 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Shields · Apr 11

vs Carlos Condit · Nov 12

vs Nick Diaz · Mar 13

vs Johny Hendricks · Nov 13

SUBvs Michael Bisping · Nov 17

latest

Dan HardyW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Carlos Condit · Oct 10

vs Anthony Johnson · Mar 11

SUBvs Chris Lytle · Aug 11

KOvs Duane Ludwig · May 12

vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Georges St-PierreMetricDan Hardy

3.78

Strikes / min

2.46

1.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

72%

Strike defense

51%

4.16

TDs / 15 min

0.73

83%

Takedown defense

35%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.38Δ 3.36 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Georges St-PierreDan Hardy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Georges St-Pierre(7 fights)Dan Hardy(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Georges St-PierreTargetDan Hardy

By target zone

65% acc · 59%

Head

13% acc · 75%

94% acc · 29%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 12%

Leg

50% acc · 25%

By position

56% acc · 17%

Distance

5% acc · 25%

Clinch

0% acc

80% acc · 83%

Ground

60% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Georges St-Pierre rounds

even

Dan Hardy rounds

Round 1Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control4:16

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control2:08

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control4:40

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 4Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control4:47

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control4:40

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 79

Sig Strikes

4 / 27

68.6%

Sig Str %

12.8%

174 / 201

Total Strikes

42 / 72

11 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

20:31

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Hardy	0 / 6	3 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Georges St-Pierre	2 / 5	23 / 29	2 / 2	1
2	Dan Hardy	2 / 14	6 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Georges St-Pierre	12 / 18	32 / 40	2 / 2	0
3	Dan Hardy	0 / 1	8 / 15	0 / 0	0
3	Georges St-Pierre	15 / 19	42 / 46	2 / 2	1
4	Georges St-Pierre	9 / 12	36 / 40	3 / 3	1
4	Dan Hardy	0 / 2	15 / 18	0 / 0	0
5	Dan Hardy	2 / 4	10 / 12	0 / 0	0
5	Georges St-Pierre	21 / 25	41 / 46	2 / 2	3

Georges St-Pierre

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7

Dan Hardy

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6