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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Georges St-Pierre won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1494

Georges St-PierrevsCarlos ConditUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Georges St-Pierre won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupGeorges St-Pierre: WrestlervsCarlos Condit: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Georges St-Pierre wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Georges St-Pierre wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Georges St-Pierre at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Georges St-Pierre enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Georges St-Pierre has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Georges St-Pierre has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Georges St-Pierre

Red Corner

Carlos Condit

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1491

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Georges St-PierreW5 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Koscheck · Dec 10

vs Jake Shields · Apr 11

vs Nick Diaz · Mar 13

vs Johny Hendricks · Nov 13

SUBvs Michael Bisping · Nov 17

latest

Carlos Condit

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Georges St-PierreMetricCarlos Condit

3.78

Strikes / min

3.66

1.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

72%

Strike defense

55%

4.16

TDs / 15 min

0.59

83%

Takedown defense

38%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.38Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Georges St-PierreCarlos Condit

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Georges St-Pierre(7 fights)Carlos Condit(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +280.0|Blue -280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Georges St-PierreTargetCarlos Condit

By target zone

50% acc · 73%

Head

23% acc · 75%

88% acc · 20%

Body

31% acc · 11%

42% acc · 7%

Leg

28% acc · 14%

By position

39% acc · 37%

Distance

18% acc · 64%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

70% acc · 63%

Ground

68% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Georges St-Pierre rounds

even

Carlos Condit rounds

Round 1Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:15

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:57

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:15

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

1Knockdowns

Round 4Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control4:16

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 5Georges St-Pierre edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control2:17

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 132

Sig Strikes

36 / 148

52.6%

Sig Str %

26.4%

172 / 237

Total Strikes

190 / 323

7 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

90%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

15:00

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Condit	2 / 20	38 / 67	0 / 0
1	Georges St-Pierre	16 / 32	36 / 53	1 / 1
2	Carlos Condit	9 / 47	38 / 79	0 / 0
2	Georges St-Pierre	16 / 31	34 / 51	1 / 1
3	Carlos Condit	16 / 28	60 / 74	0 / 0
3	Georges St-Pierre	9 / 19	36 / 46	2 / 2
4	Georges St-Pierre	9 / 18	29 / 39	2 / 2
4	Carlos Condit	3 / 9	33 / 42	0 / 0
5	Carlos Condit	6 / 44	21 / 61	0 / 0
5	Georges St-Pierre	21 / 32	37 / 48	1 / 2

Georges St-Pierre

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17