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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · SUB R3

Elo1367

Elo1492

George SullivanvsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · Saturday, April 18, 2015Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:41

Style matchupGeorge Sullivan: Elusive strikervsTim Means: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: George Sullivan wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

George Sullivan at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

George Sullivan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tim Means has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

George Sullivan

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1367

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

George SullivanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Igor Araujo · Sep 14

vs Dominic Waters · Jul 15

KOvs Alexander Yakovlev · Jan 16

SUBvs Niko Price · Jan 18

SUBvs Mickey Gall · Aug 18

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

George SullivanMetricTim Means

3.53

Strikes / min

5.04

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

57%

Strike defense

60%

1.37

TDs / 15 min

1.14

38%

Takedown defense

64%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

George SullivanTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

George Sullivan(7 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.5|Blue +124.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

George SullivanTargetTim Means

By target zone

20% acc · 69%

Head

31% acc · 58%

36% acc · 23%

Body

38% acc · 25%

60% acc · 8%

Leg

89% acc · 17%

By position

22% acc · 87%

Distance

30% acc · 63%

45% acc · 13%

Clinch

64% acc · 19%

Ground

56% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

George Sullivan rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1George Sullivan edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:27

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:23Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 164

Sig Strikes

48 / 130

22.7%

Sig Str %

41.3%

43 / 169

Total Strikes

69 / 151

0 / 5

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

3:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Means	12 / 57	14 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	George Sullivan	15 / 68	17 / 71	0 / 3	0
2	Tim Means	25 / 54	35 / 64	1 / 1	0
2	George Sullivan	19 / 71	20 / 72	0 / 1	0
3	Tim Means	11 / 19	20 / 28	1 / 1	1
3	George Sullivan	5 / 25	6 / 26	0 / 1	0

George Sullivan

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29