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Welterweight
3 Rounds
George Sullivan won · U-DEC R3
Elo1367
Elo1357

George SullivanvsDominic WatersUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Sunday, July 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

George Sullivan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGeorge Sullivan: Elusive strikervsDominic Waters: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: George Sullivan wins(59.1%)

Actual result: George Sullivan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

George Sullivan at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • George Sullivan enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • George Sullivan has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Dominic Waters has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

George Sullivan
Red Corner
VS
Dominic Waters
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1367
Elo
1357
45
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

George SullivanL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Igor Araujo · Sep 14
L
SUBvs Tim Means · Apr 15
L
KOvs Alexander Yakovlev · Jan 16
L
SUBvs Niko Price · Jan 18
L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Aug 18
latest
Dominic WatersL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 15
L
vs Leon Edwards · May 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

George SullivanMetricDominic Waters
3.53
Strikes / min
0.48
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
2.53
57%
Strike defense
39%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
4.07
38%
Takedown defense
28%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.11Δ 3.16 — meaningful gap-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes47.7 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
George SullivanDominic Waters

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
George Sullivan(7 fights)Dominic Waters(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +10.3|Blue -10.3
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -47.6|Blue +47.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

George SullivanTargetDominic Waters

By target zone

29
45% acc · 54%
Head
12
24% acc · 92%
18
82% acc · 33%
Body
1
100% acc · 8%
7
78% acc · 13%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

21
41% acc · 39%
Distance
10
20% acc · 77%
10
100% acc · 19%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 8%
23
66% acc · 43%
Ground
2
100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
George Sullivan rounds
0
even
1
Dominic Waters rounds
Round 1George Sullivan edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns1
Control0:52
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:18Control
Round 2George Sullivan edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control3:45
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:51Control
Round 3Dominic Waters edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control1:24
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:16Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
54 / 96
Sig Strikes
13 / 53
52.7%
Sig Str %
38.3%
103 / 145
Total Strikes
32 / 72
2 / 2
TDs
5 / 5
100%
TD %
100%
3
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
6:01
Ctrl Time
5:25

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dominic Waters9 / 449 / 442 / 20
1George Sullivan38 / 6745 / 741 / 10
2Dominic Waters1 / 52 / 61 / 10
2George Sullivan12 / 1838 / 441 / 13
3Dominic Waters3 / 421 / 222 / 20
3George Sullivan4 / 1120 / 270 / 00

George Sullivan

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7

Dominic Waters

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights3