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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Yakovlev won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1367
Elo1391
Alexander Yakovlev

George SullivanvsAlexander YakovlevUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Yakovlev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:59

Model Prediction: George Sullivan wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Alexander Yakovlev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

George Sullivan at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alexander Yakovlev has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alexander Yakovlev (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

George Sullivan
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Yakovlev
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1367
Elo
1391
45
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

George SullivanL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Igor Araujo · Sep 14
L
SUBvs Tim Means · Apr 15
W
vs Dominic Waters · Jul 15
L
SUBvs Niko Price · Jan 18
L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Aug 18
latest
Alexander YakovlevL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 16
L
SUBvs Zak Cummings · Nov 16
W
SUBvs Alex Da Silva · Apr 19
L
vs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 19
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Oct 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

George SullivanMetricAlexander Yakovlev
3.53
Strikes / min
1.74
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
2.41
57%
Strike defense
58%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
1.66
38%
Takedown defense
72%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.11Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1485Strikes49.3 vs 32.3Takedowns1.3 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.75 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs -0.0
George SullivanAlexander Yakovlev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
George Sullivan(7 fights)Alexander Yakovlev(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -23.4|Blue +23.4
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -99.0|Blue +99.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

George SullivanTargetAlexander Yakovlev

By target zone

1
17% acc · 7%
Head
5
71% acc · 33%
5
100% acc · 36%
Body
5
83% acc · 33%
8
73% acc · 57%
Leg
5
100% acc · 33%

By position

11
58% acc · 79%
Distance
8
80% acc · 53%
3
100% acc · 21%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 20%
0
Ground
4
100% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
George Sullivan rounds
0
even
1
Alexander Yakovlev rounds
Round 1Alexander Yakovlev edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control1:43
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
14 / 22
Sig Strikes
15 / 18
63%
Sig Str %
83%
19 / 27
Total Strikes
17 / 20
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 2
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:43
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alexander Yakovlev15 / 1817 / 202 / 20
1George Sullivan14 / 2219 / 270 / 00

George Sullivan

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7

Alexander Yakovlev

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9