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Lightweight

3 Rounds

KJ Noons won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1356

George SotiropoulosvsKJ NoonsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

KJ Noons won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGeorge Sotiropoulos: WrestlervsKJ Noons: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: KJ Noons wins(62.2%)

Actual result: KJ Noons wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

KJ Noons at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

George Sotiropoulos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
KJ Noons is a KO finisher (50% of wins). George Sotiropoulos has lost 50% of fights by KO.
George Sotiropoulos threatens submissions; KJ Noons has lost 33% of fights by sub.
KJ Noons has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

George Sotiropoulos

Red Corner

KJ Noons

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1353

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

George SotiropoulosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kurt Pellegrino · Jul 10

SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Nov 10

vs Dennis Siver · Feb 11

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 11

KOvs Ross Pearson · Dec 12

latest

KJ NoonsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Donald Cerrone · May 13

KOvs Sam Stout · Apr 14

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · May 15

vs Joshua Burkman · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

George SotiropoulosMetricKJ Noons

2.61

Strikes / min

3.68

2.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

67%

Strike defense

65%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

0.08

53%

Takedown defense

68%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

George SotiropoulosKJ Noons

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

George Sotiropoulos(6 fights)KJ Noons(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.7|Blue +3.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +162.0|Blue -162.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

George SotiropoulosTargetKJ Noons

By target zone

18% acc · 62%

Head

23% acc · 46%

67% acc · 12%

Body

56% acc · 54%

93% acc · 26%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

George Sotiropoulos rounds

even

KJ Noons rounds

Round 1KJ Noons edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2George Sotiropoulos edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:26

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3George Sotiropoulos edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 199

Sig Strikes

56 / 167

23.3%

Sig Str %

34%

50 / 199

Total Strikes

57 / 168

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	KJ Noons	21 / 44	21 / 44	0 / 0
1	George Sotiropoulos	6 / 29	6 / 29	0 / 0
2	KJ Noons	14 / 59	15 / 60	0 / 0
2	George Sotiropoulos	20 / 77	20 / 77	1 / 3
3	KJ Noons	21 / 64	21 / 64	0 / 0
3	George Sotiropoulos	24 / 93	24 / 93	0 / 4

George Sotiropoulos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

KJ Noons

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5