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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Uros Medic won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1478
Geoff Neal editorial illustration
Elo1539
Uros Medic editorial illustration

Geoff NealvsUros MedicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Uros Medic won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:19

Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsUros Medic: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Uros Medic wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Uros Medic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Uros Medic at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Geoff Neal has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Geoff Neal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal
Red Corner
VS
Uros Medic
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1478
Elo
1539
35
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff Neal
oldest →
W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Aug 22
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24
W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25
latest
Uros MedicW2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 23
W
KOvs Tim Means · Apr 24
L
KOvs Punahele Soriano · Jan 25
W
KOvs Gilbert Urbina · Aug 25
W
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricUros Medic
5.02
Strikes / min
5.59
5.50
Strikes absorbed / min
3.42
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
0.34
87%
Takedown defense
55%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.48Δ 2.65 — meaningful gap+2.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1562 vs 1554Strikes5.0 vs 5.6Takedowns0.5 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs 0.6
Geoff NealUros Medic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601483150515281550← oldermost recent →
Geoff Neal(10 fights)Uros Medic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -61.5|Blue +61.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetUros Medic

By target zone

1
17% acc · 33%
Head
4
40% acc · 40%
1
33% acc · 33%
Body
6
67% acc · 60%
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

3
30% acc · 100%
Distance
10
53% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Geoff Neal rounds
0
even
1
Uros Medic rounds
Round 1Uros Medic edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 10
Sig Strikes
10 / 19
30%
Sig Str %
52%
3 / 10
Total Strikes
10 / 19
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Uros Medic10 / 1910 / 190 / 00
1Geoff Neal3 / 103 / 100 / 00

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14

Uros Medic

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10