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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Geoff Neal won · S-DEC R3

Elo1478

Elo1477

Geoff NealvsSantiago PonzinibbioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Geoff Neal won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Geoff Neal at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Geoff Neal is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost 56% of fights by KO.
Geoff Neal has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal

Red Corner

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1478

Elo

1477

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricSantiago Ponzinibbio

5.02

Strikes / min

4.78

5.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

57%

Strike defense

61%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.60

87%

Takedown defense

71%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Geoff NealSantiago Ponzinibbio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Geoff Neal(10 fights)Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetSantiago Ponzinibbio

By target zone

50% acc · 86%

Head

32% acc · 68%

56% acc · 6%

Body

71% acc · 13%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

53% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 99%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Geoff Neal rounds

even

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

Round 1Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:03

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 161

Sig Strikes

91 / 229

50.3%

Sig Str %

39%

86 / 162

Total Strikes

91 / 229

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	26 / 63	26 / 63	0 / 0
1	Geoff Neal	20 / 41	21 / 42	0 / 0
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	26 / 73	26 / 73	1 / 4
2	Geoff Neal	19 / 47	19 / 47	0 / 0
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	39 / 93	39 / 93	0 / 0
3	Geoff Neal	46 / 73	46 / 73	0 / 0

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21