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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Geoff Neal won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1478
Geoff Neal editorial illustration
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos

Geoff NealvsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Geoff Neal won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:30

Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Geoff Neal at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Geoff Neal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Geoff Neal has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Geoff Neal has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Dos Anjos
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1478
Elo
1491
35
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'8"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff NealL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Aug 22
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25
L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26
latest
Rafael Dos AnjosL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Renato Moicano · Mar 22
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricRafael Dos Anjos
5.02
Strikes / min
3.48
5.50
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
57%
Strike defense
60%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
1.95
87%
Takedown defense
54%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1562 vs 1590Strikes5.0 vs 3.5Takedowns0.6 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.60Form-0.6 vs -0.5
Geoff NealRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Geoff Neal(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -12.8|Blue +12.8
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

12
50% acc · 67%
Head
2
20% acc · 50%
3
100% acc · 17%
Body
1
100% acc · 25%
3
100% acc · 17%
Leg
1
50% acc · 25%

By position

13
54% acc · 72%
Distance
4
31% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
5
83% acc · 28%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Geoff Neal rounds
0
even
0
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
Round 1Geoff Neal edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:27
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
18 / 30
Sig Strikes
4 / 13
60%
Sig Str %
30%
21 / 34
Total Strikes
4 / 13
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:27
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rafael Dos Anjos4 / 134 / 130 / 00
1Geoff Neal18 / 3021 / 341 / 10

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32