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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Geoff Neal won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1478

Elo1445

Geoff NealvsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · Saturday, July 27, 2019Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Geoff Neal won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:39

Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsNiko Price: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Geoff Neal at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Geoff Neal is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Niko Price has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Geoff Neal has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal

Red Corner

Niko Price

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1478

Elo

1445

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricNiko Price

5.02

Strikes / min

5.11

5.50

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

57%

Strike defense

48%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.06

87%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Geoff NealNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Geoff Neal(10 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.8|Blue -32.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetNiko Price

By target zone

68% acc · 100%

Head

37% acc · 63%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

44% acc · 20%

Distance

36% acc · 58%

75% acc · 15%

Clinch

75% acc · 25%

77% acc · 66%

Ground

40% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Geoff Neal rounds

even

Niko Price rounds

Round 1Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:34

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control2:03

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 61

Sig Strikes

24 / 57

65.5%

Sig Str %

41%

53 / 73

Total Strikes

42 / 79

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:37

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Niko Price	16 / 36	26 / 47	0 / 2
1	Geoff Neal	14 / 23	18 / 27	2 / 3
2	Niko Price	8 / 21	16 / 32	0 / 0
2	Geoff Neal	27 / 38	35 / 46	0 / 1

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19