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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Geoff Neal won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1478

Elo1399

Geoff NealvsMike PerryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Saturday, December 14, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Geoff Neal won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:30

Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsMike Perry: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Geoff Neal at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).
Geoff Neal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal

Red Corner

Mike Perry

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1478

Elo

1399

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Mike PerryL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Oliveira · Apr 19

DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20

vs Tim Means · Nov 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricMike Perry

5.02

Strikes / min

4.32

5.50

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

57%

Strike defense

52%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.81

87%

Takedown defense

78%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48evenly matched on net striking-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Geoff NealMike Perry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Geoff Neal(10 fights)Mike Perry(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +79.0|Blue -79.0

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetMike Perry

By target zone

67% acc · 80%

Head

33% acc · 20%

33% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 40%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 40%

By position

60% acc · 80%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Geoff Neal rounds

even

Mike Perry rounds

Round 1Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 23

Sig Strikes

5 / 10

65%

Sig Str %

50%

15 / 23

Total Strikes

5 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Perry	5 / 10	5 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Geoff Neal	15 / 23	15 / 23	0 / 0	0

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15