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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ian Machado Garry won · S-DEC R3

Elo1478

Elo1541

Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Geoff NealvsIan Machado GarryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Ian Machado Garry won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(79.8%)

Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Machado Garry at -258 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal

Red Corner

Ian Machado Garry

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-258

(72%)

1478

Elo

1541

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Vicente Luque · Aug 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Ian Machado GarryW2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Aug 23

vs Michael Page · Jun 24

vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24

vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25

vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricIan Machado Garry

5.02

Strikes / min

4.78

5.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

57%

Strike defense

52%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.92

87%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Geoff NealIan Machado Garry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Geoff Neal(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetIan Machado Garry

By target zone

39% acc · 54%

Head

41% acc · 58%

77% acc · 22%

Body

67% acc · 27%

92% acc · 24%

Leg

83% acc · 15%

By position

48% acc · 83%

Distance

49% acc · 97%

80% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Geoff Neal rounds

even

Ian Machado Garry rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:10

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:20

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:15

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 89

Sig Strikes

67 / 135

51.7%

Sig Str %

49.7%

57 / 102

Total Strikes

80 / 148

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:45

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ian Machado Garry	20 / 38	22 / 40	0 / 0
1	Geoff Neal	18 / 27	19 / 28	0 / 0
2	Ian Machado Garry	23 / 43	31 / 51	0 / 0
2	Geoff Neal	17 / 34	23 / 41	0 / 0
3	Ian Machado Garry	24 / 54	27 / 57	0 / 0
3	Geoff Neal	11 / 28	15 / 33	0 / 0

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8