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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Geoff Neal won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1478

Elo1425

Geoff NealvsFrank CamachoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Saturday, September 8, 2018Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Geoff Neal won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:23

Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsFrank Camacho: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Frank Camacho wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frank Camacho at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frank Camacho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Geoff Neal is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Frank Camacho has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal

Red Corner

Frank Camacho

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1478

Elo

1425

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Frank CamachoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Jan 18

KOvs Nick Hein · Jun 19

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Oct 19

KOvs Justin Jaynes · Jun 20

KOvs Manuel Torres · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricFrank Camacho

5.02

Strikes / min

6.56

5.50

Strikes absorbed / min

7.44

57%

Strike defense

51%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.11

87%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48evenly matched on net striking-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Geoff NealFrank Camacho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Geoff Neal(10 fights)Frank Camacho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.1|Blue -53.1

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -4.8|Blue +4.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -22.0|Blue +22.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetFrank Camacho

By target zone

57% acc · 95%

Head

30% acc · 48%

75% acc · 5%

Body

71% acc · 40%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

57% acc · 78%

Distance

44% acc · 92%

55% acc · 10%

Clinch

40% acc · 8%

70% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Geoff Neal rounds

even

Frank Camacho rounds

Round 1Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 102

Sig Strikes

25 / 57

60%

Sig Str %

40.5%

62 / 105

Total Strikes

33 / 66

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Frank Camacho	19 / 39	27 / 48	0 / 1
1	Geoff Neal	37 / 70	40 / 73	0 / 0
2	Frank Camacho	6 / 18	6 / 18	0 / 1
2	Geoff Neal	22 / 32	22 / 32	0 / 0

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Frank Camacho

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7