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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Prates won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1478
Geoff Neal editorial illustration
Elo1567

Geoff NealvsCarlos PratesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Prates won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsCarlos Prates: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Carlos Prates wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Carlos Prates wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Prates at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Geoff Neal has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Prates
Blue Corner
+162
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1478
Elo
1567
35
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff Neal
oldest →
W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Aug 22
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24
W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24
L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26
latest
Carlos PratesW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Li Jingliang · Aug 24
W
KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Apr 25
W
KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25
W
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricCarlos Prates
5.02
Strikes / min
4.41
5.50
Strikes absorbed / min
4.30
57%
Strike defense
47%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
0.18
87%
Takedown defense
77%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1582 vs 1563Strikes5.0 vs 3.8Takedowns0.5 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.3
Geoff NealCarlos Prates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601490152015501580← oldermost recent →
Geoff Neal(10 fights)Carlos Prates(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -89.7|Blue +89.7
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +182.0|Blue -182.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetCarlos Prates

By target zone

16
42% acc · 64%
Head
17
38% acc · 53%
4
67% acc · 16%
Body
8
100% acc · 25%
5
100% acc · 20%
Leg
7
100% acc · 22%

By position

23
51% acc · 92%
Distance
32
55% acc · 100%
2
50% acc · 8%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Geoff Neal rounds
0
even
1
Carlos Prates rounds
Round 1Carlos Prates edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:15
Knockdowns0
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
25 / 49
Sig Strikes
32 / 60
51%
Sig Str %
53%
26 / 50
Total Strikes
32 / 60
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:15
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlos Prates32 / 6032 / 600 / 00
1Geoff Neal25 / 4926 / 500 / 10

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14

Carlos Prates

StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7