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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Geoff Neal won · SUB R1

Elo1478

Elo1364

Geoff NealvsBrian CamozziUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · Sunday, February 18, 2018Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Geoff Neal won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:48

Model Prediction: Brian Camozzi wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Camozzi at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Geoff Neal is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Brian Camozzi has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Geoff Neal has 87pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal

Red Corner

Brian Camozzi

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1478

Elo

1364

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Brian CamozziL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Randy Brown · Dec 16

KOvs Chad Laprise · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricBrian Camozzi

5.02

Strikes / min

3.15

5.50

Strikes absorbed / min

6.39

57%

Strike defense

54%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.00

87%

Takedown defense

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap-3.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Geoff NealBrian Camozzi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Geoff Neal(10 fights)Brian Camozzi(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +113.8|Blue -113.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetBrian Camozzi

By target zone

39% acc · 79%

Head

14% acc · 43%

100% acc · 7%

Body

40% acc · 29%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Geoff Neal rounds

even

Brian Camozzi rounds

Round 1Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:07

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 31

Sig Strikes

7 / 29

45%

Sig Str %

24%

15 / 32

Total Strikes

9 / 32

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Camozzi	7 / 29	9 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Geoff Neal	14 / 31	15 / 32	0 / 0	1

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Brian Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3