← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gegard Mousasi won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1432

Gegard MousasivsThiago SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · Saturday, July 9, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gegard Mousasi won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:32

Style matchupGegard Mousasi: Submission grapplervsThiago Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Thiago Santos wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Santos at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Gegard Mousasi has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Gegard Mousasi

Red Corner

Thiago Santos

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1491

Elo

1432

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gegard MousasiW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Uriah Hall · Sep 15

vs Thales Leites · Feb 16

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16

KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17

latest

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gegard MousasiMetricThiago Santos

3.75

Strikes / min

3.72

1.21

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

68%

Strike defense

53%

1.59

TDs / 15 min

0.88

59%

Takedown defense

65%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.54Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gegard MousasiThiago Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.5|Blue -58.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gegard MousasiTargetThiago Santos

By target zone

57% acc · 76%

Head

43% acc · 60%

100% acc · 14%

Body

0% acc

67% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 40%

By position

42% acc · 38%

Distance

33% acc · 80%

75% acc · 14%

Clinch

91% acc · 48%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gegard Mousasi rounds

even

Thiago Santos rounds

Round 1Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control2:09

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 34

Sig Strikes

5 / 13

61%

Sig Str %

38%

39 / 55

Total Strikes

5 / 13

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Santos	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Gegard Mousasi	21 / 34	39 / 55	2 / 2	0

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24