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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gegard Mousasi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Gegard MousasivsThales LeitesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · Saturday, February 27, 2016London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Gegard Mousasi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGegard Mousasi: Submission grapplervsThales Leites: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Thales Leites wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thales Leites at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Gegard Mousasi has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gegard Mousasi has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gegard Mousasi

Red Corner

Thales Leites

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gegard MousasiW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Uriah Hall · Sep 15

KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16

KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17

latest

Thales Leites

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16

vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18

vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gegard MousasiMetricThales Leites

3.75

Strikes / min

2.13

1.21

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

68%

Strike defense

52%

1.59

TDs / 15 min

2.10

59%

Takedown defense

30%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.54Δ 3.40 — meaningful gap-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gegard MousasiThales Leites

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)Thales Leites(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gegard MousasiTargetThales Leites

By target zone

39% acc · 68%

Head

20% acc · 71%

100% acc · 14%

Body

0% acc

79% acc · 19%

Leg

71% acc · 29%

By position

43% acc · 81%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

0% acc

75% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gegard Mousasi rounds

even

Thales Leites rounds

Round 1Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:21

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 2Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:31

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control2:50

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 171

Sig Strikes

17 / 70

47.3%

Sig Str %

25.3%

95 / 187

Total Strikes

19 / 72

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 10

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:42

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thales Leites	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 3
1	Gegard Mousasi	22 / 49	26 / 54	0 / 0
2	Thales Leites	7 / 34	7 / 34	0 / 4
2	Gegard Mousasi	38 / 82	39 / 83	0 / 0
3	Thales Leites	6 / 23	8 / 25	0 / 3
3	Gegard Mousasi	21 / 40	30 / 50	0 / 0

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13