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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Gegard Mousasi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1497

Gegard MousasivsIlir LatifiUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · Saturday, April 6, 2013Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Gegard Mousasi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGegard Mousasi: Submission grapplervsIlir Latifi: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Gegard Mousasi wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gegard Mousasi at -710 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gegard Mousasi has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ilir Latifi has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gegard Mousasi

Red Corner

Ilir Latifi

Blue Corner

-710

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+575

(15%)

1491

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gegard MousasiW5 streak

oldest →

vs Thales Leites · Feb 16

KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16

KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17

latest

Ilir Latifi

oldest →

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Aug 19

vs Derrick Lewis · Feb 20

vs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Aleksei Oleinik · Oct 22

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gegard MousasiMetricIlir Latifi

3.75

Strikes / min

2.05

1.21

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

68%

Strike defense

56%

1.59

TDs / 15 min

2.11

59%

Takedown defense

100%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.54Δ 3.42 — meaningful gap-0.88

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)Ilir Latifi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.4|Blue +6.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gegard MousasiTargetIlir Latifi

By target zone

52% acc · 78%

Head

11% acc · 61%

39% acc · 9%

Body

60% acc · 17%

92% acc · 14%

Leg

67% acc · 22%

By position

53% acc · 99%

Distance

15% acc · 89%

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 1%

Ground

33% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gegard Mousasi rounds

even

Ilir Latifi rounds

Round 1Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:06

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 150

Sig Strikes

18 / 112

52.3%

Sig Str %

15.3%

80 / 150

Total Strikes

20 / 114

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ilir Latifi	4 / 34	4 / 34	0 / 1
1	Gegard Mousasi	20 / 41	20 / 41	0 / 0
2	Ilir Latifi	6 / 39	6 / 39	0 / 1
2	Gegard Mousasi	24 / 52	24 / 52	0 / 0
3	Ilir Latifi	8 / 39	10 / 41	1 / 1
3	Gegard Mousasi	36 / 57	36 / 57	0 / 0

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Ilir Latifi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16