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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Gegard Mousasi won · Decision R3
Elo1491
Gegard Mousasi
Elo1490
Costas Philippou

Gegard MousasivsCostas PhilippouUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · Saturday, May 16, 2015Manila, Philippines

Official fight result

Gegard Mousasi won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Costas Philippou wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Costas Philippou at +550 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gegard Mousasi enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Gegard Mousasi
Red Corner
VS
Costas Philippou
Blue Corner
-800
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+550
(15%)
1491
Elo
1490
40
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gegard MousasiW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Thales Leites · Feb 16
W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16
W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16
W
KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17
latest
Costas Philippou
oldest →
W
DECvs Riki Fukuda · Jul 12
W
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Dec 12
L
DECvs Francis Carmont · Sep 13
L
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jan 14
W
KOvs Lorenz Larkin · May 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gegard MousasiMetricCostas Philippou
3.75
Strikes / min
—
1.21
Strikes absorbed / min
—
68%
Strike defense
—
1.59
TDs / 15 min
—
59%
Takedown defense
—
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1554Strikes32.8 vs 26.1Takedowns0.0 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.22Form0.2 vs 0.1
Gegard MousasiCostas Philippou

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)Costas Philippou(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -259.0|Blue +259.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Costas Philippou

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2