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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Gavin Tucker won · Submission R3

Elo1472

Elo1403

Gavin TuckervsJustin JaynesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Saturday, August 8, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gavin Tucker won

Submission · Round 3 · 1:43

Model Prediction: Justin Jaynes wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Gavin Tucker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Jaynes at +112 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gavin Tucker threatens submissions; Justin Jaynes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Gavin Tucker has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gavin Tucker (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gavin Tucker

Red Corner

Justin Jaynes

Blue Corner

-139

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+112

(47%)

1472

Elo

1403

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gavin TuckerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 17

SUBvs Seungwoo Choi · Jul 19

vs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 20

KOvs Dan Ige · Mar 21

SUBvs Diego Lopes · Aug 23

latest

Justin JaynesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frank Camacho · Jun 20

KOvs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 20

vs Charles Rosa · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gavin TuckerMetricJustin Jaynes

4.29

Strikes / min

3.34

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

5.33

57%

Strike defense

62%

3.13

TDs / 15 min

0.75

53%

Takedown defense

20%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.11Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap-1.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gavin TuckerJustin Jaynes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gavin Tucker(7 fights)Justin Jaynes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +69.7|Blue -69.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gavin TuckerTargetJustin Jaynes

By target zone

34% acc · 70%

Head

36% acc · 73%

77% acc · 26%

Body

65% acc · 27%

75% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

42% acc · 99%

Distance

36% acc · 76%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

0% acc

Ground

67% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gavin Tucker rounds

even

Justin Jaynes rounds

Round 1Justin Jaynes edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:35

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Gavin Tucker edged it

Sig. strikes63

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gavin Tucker edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:49

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 211

Sig Strikes

41 / 101

36.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

88 / 212

Total Strikes

42 / 103

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Jaynes	28 / 54	29 / 55	0 / 0	1
1	Gavin Tucker	15 / 48	16 / 49	1 / 1	1
2	Justin Jaynes	6 / 30	6 / 30	0 / 0	0
2	Gavin Tucker	63 / 137	63 / 137	0 / 0	0
3	Justin Jaynes	7 / 17	7 / 18	0 / 1	0
3	Gavin Tucker	9 / 26	9 / 26	0 / 1	3

Gavin Tucker

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Justin Jaynes

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4