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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Gavin Tucker won · U-DEC

Elo1472

Elo1493

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Gavin TuckervsBilly QuarantilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Saturday, December 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gavin Tucker won

U-DEC

Style matchupGavin Tucker: WrestlervsBilly Quarantillo: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Gavin Tucker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Quarantillo at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gavin Tucker has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Gavin Tucker (53.5%).
Billy Quarantillo has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gavin Tucker

Red Corner

Billy Quarantillo

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1472

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gavin TuckerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 17

SUBvs Seungwoo Choi · Jul 19

SUBvs Justin Jaynes · Aug 20

KOvs Dan Ige · Mar 21

SUBvs Diego Lopes · Aug 23

latest

Billy QuarantilloL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22

KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gavin TuckerMetricBilly Quarantillo

4.29

Strikes / min

7.44

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

57%

Strike defense

42%

3.13

TDs / 15 min

1.47

53%

Takedown defense

61%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.11Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap+1.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gavin TuckerBilly Quarantillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gavin Tucker(7 fights)Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gavin TuckerTargetBilly Quarantillo

By target zone

56% acc · 64%

Head

35% acc · 54%

84% acc · 29%

Body

75% acc · 39%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

86% acc · 7%

By position

58% acc · 67%

Distance

40% acc · 65%

78% acc · 30%

Clinch

83% acc · 35%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gavin Tucker rounds

even

Billy Quarantillo rounds

Round 1Gavin Tucker edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns2

Control0:58

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Gavin Tucker edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns1

Control1:18

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Gavin Tucker edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns4

Control2:58

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

106 / 166

Sig Strikes

84 / 178

61.3%

Sig Str %

44.7%

123 / 183

Total Strikes

136 / 233

7 / 13

TDs

0 / 3

52%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:14

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Billy Quarantillo	33 / 69	44 / 80	0 / 1
1	Gavin Tucker	38 / 63	43 / 68	2 / 3
2	Billy Quarantillo	38 / 69	43 / 74	0 / 1
2	Gavin Tucker	53 / 76	58 / 81	1 / 3
3	Billy Quarantillo	13 / 40	49 / 79	0 / 1
3	Gavin Tucker	15 / 27	22 / 34	4 / 7

Gavin Tucker

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11