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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Quang Le won · SUB R2

Elo1516

Elo1483

Gaston BolanosvsQuang LeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Quang Le won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:54

Model Prediction: Quang Le wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Quang Le wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Quang Le at +108 American odds

+$108 profit

$208 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Quang Le enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Quang Le threatens submissions; Gaston Bolanos has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Quang Le has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gaston Bolanos

Red Corner

Quang Le

Blue Corner

-126

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1516

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gaston BolanosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Aaron Phillips · Apr 23

KOvs Marcus McGhee · Jan 24

vs Cortavious Romious · Nov 24

DECvs Michael Aswell Jr. · Jun 26

latest

Quang LeL3 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Gutierrez · Aug 24

KOvs Xiao Long · Nov 24

KOvs Santiago Luna · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gaston BolanosMetricQuang Le

3.28

Strikes / min

2.82

2.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

50%

Strike defense

49%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

2.90

42%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.88Δ 2.65 — meaningful gap-1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gaston BolanosQuang Le

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gaston Bolanos(5 fights)Quang Le(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.4|Blue -33.4

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gaston BolanosTargetQuang Le

By target zone

9% acc · 20%

Head

69% acc · 90%

50% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 10%

43% acc · 60%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

71% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gaston Bolanos rounds

even

Quang Le rounds

Round 1Quang Le edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:24Control

Round 2Quang Le edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 20

Sig Strikes

10 / 14

15.5%

Sig Str %

69%

8 / 23

Total Strikes

33 / 38

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

55%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Quang Le	2 / 3	20 / 21	3 / 5	0
1	Gaston Bolanos	0 / 4	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Quang Le	8 / 11	13 / 17	1 / 2	1
2	Gaston Bolanos	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 0	0

Gaston Bolanos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Quang Le

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4