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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Gaston Bolanos won · Decision R3

Elo1516

Elo1465

Gaston BolanosvsMichael Aswell Jr.UFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Saturday, June 20, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Gaston Bolanos won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Gaston Bolanos

Model Prediction: Gaston Bolanos wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Gaston Bolanos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Aswell Jr. is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Gaston Bolanos has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Michael Aswell Jr. has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gaston Bolanos

Red Corner

Michael Aswell Jr.

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

—

1516

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gaston Bolanos

oldest →

vs Aaron Phillips · Apr 23

KOvs Marcus McGhee · Jan 24

vs Cortavious Romious · Nov 24

SUBvs Quang Le · May 25

latest

Michael Aswell Jr.

oldest →

vs Bolaji Oki · May 25

KOvs Lucas Almeida · Oct 25

vs Luke Riley · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gaston BolanosMetricMichael Aswell Jr.

3.28

Strikes / min

7.79

2.40

Strikes absorbed / min

7.43

50%

Strike defense

51%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

0.32

42%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.88evenly matched on net striking+0.36

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gaston Bolanos(5 fights)Michael Aswell Jr.(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +51.0|Blue -51.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +322.0|Blue -322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gaston BolanosTargetMichael Aswell Jr.

By target zone

29% acc · 40%

Head

38% acc · 82%

69% acc · 39%

Body

75% acc · 17%

75% acc · 21%

Leg

50% acc · 1%

By position

45% acc · 99%

Distance

40% acc · 90%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

82% acc · 9%

Ground

25% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gaston Bolanos rounds

even

Michael Aswell Jr. rounds

Round 1Michael Aswell Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gaston Bolanos edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:22

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Michael Aswell Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 193

Sig Strikes

105 / 252

44.7%

Sig Str %

40.7%

94 / 202

Total Strikes

115 / 267

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

1:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Aswell Jr.	47 / 100	47 / 100	0 / 1
1	Gaston Bolanos	29 / 74	29 / 74	0 / 0
2	Michael Aswell Jr.	30 / 80	34 / 85	0 / 2
2	Gaston Bolanos	36 / 71	37 / 74	1 / 1
3	Michael Aswell Jr.	28 / 72	34 / 82	0 / 0
3	Gaston Bolanos	22 / 48	28 / 54	0 / 1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

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Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 53% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Gaston Bolanos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Michael Aswell Jr.

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4