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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Gaston Bolanos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1480

Gaston BolanosvsCortavious RomiousUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Saturday, November 9, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gaston Bolanos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Gaston Bolanos wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Gaston Bolanos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gaston Bolanos at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gaston Bolanos has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Cortavious Romious has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cortavious Romious (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gaston Bolanos

Red Corner

Cortavious Romious

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1516

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gaston Bolanos

oldest →

vs Aaron Phillips · Apr 23

KOvs Marcus McGhee · Jan 24

SUBvs Quang Le · May 25

DECvs Michael Aswell Jr. · Jun 26

latest

Cortavious Romious

oldest →

KOvs ChangHo Lee · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gaston BolanosMetricCortavious Romious

3.28

Strikes / min

1.91

2.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

50%

Strike defense

39%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

2.29

42%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.88Δ 2.43 — meaningful gap-1.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gaston BolanosCortavious Romious

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gaston Bolanos(5 fights)Cortavious Romious(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.2|Blue -36.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gaston BolanosTargetCortavious Romious

By target zone

52% acc · 42%

Head

32% acc · 71%

90% acc · 36%

Body

60% acc · 18%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

67% acc · 12%

By position

66% acc · 55%

Distance

34% acc · 82%

90% acc · 17%

Clinch

71% acc · 28%

Ground

75% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gaston Bolanos rounds

even

Cortavious Romious rounds

Round 1Gaston Bolanos edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:30

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Gaston Bolanos edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:21

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:09Control

Round 3Gaston Bolanos edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:38

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 75

Sig Strikes

17 / 45

74.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

80 / 104

Total Strikes

30 / 61

2 / 2

TDs

4 / 6

100%

TD %

77.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:29

Ctrl Time

6:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cortavious Romious	12 / 34	16 / 39	1 / 3
1	Gaston Bolanos	27 / 40	29 / 43	0 / 0
2	Cortavious Romious	3 / 5	4 / 7	2 / 2
2	Gaston Bolanos	15 / 23	25 / 33	1 / 1
3	Cortavious Romious	2 / 6	10 / 15	1 / 1
3	Gaston Bolanos	11 / 12	26 / 28	1 / 1

Gaston Bolanos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Cortavious Romious

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2