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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Paulo Costa won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1360
Elo1522
Paulo Costa

Garreth McLellanvsPaulo CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Saturday, March 11, 2017Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Paulo Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:17

Model Prediction: Garreth McLellan wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Garreth McLellan at +280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Paulo Costa is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Garreth McLellan has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Paulo Costa has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Garreth McLellan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Garreth McLellan
Red Corner
VS
Paulo Costa
Blue Corner
+280
(26%)
Vegas Odds
-340
(77%)
1360
Elo
1522
43
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Garreth McLellanL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Bartosz Fabinski · Apr 15
W
KOvs Bubba Bush · Oct 15
L
KOvs Magnus Cedenblad · May 16
L
vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 16
latest
Paulo CostaW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22
L
vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24
L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24
W
vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25
W
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Garreth McLellanMetricPaulo Costa
3.56
Strikes / min
6.15
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
5.96
45%
Strike defense
49%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
0.30
34%
Takedown defense
77%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1466 vs 1500Strikes44.8 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.75 vs —Form-0.6 vs 0.0
Garreth McLellanPaulo Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Garreth McLellan(5 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -162.3|Blue +162.3
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -48.1|Blue +48.1
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Garreth McLellanTargetPaulo Costa

By target zone

2
20% acc · 33%
Head
18
64% acc · 82%
4
100% acc · 67%
Body
3
100% acc · 14%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

5
45% acc · 83%
Distance
16
62% acc · 73%
1
33% acc · 17%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
6
100% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Garreth McLellan rounds
0
even
1
Paulo Costa rounds
Round 1Paulo Costa edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 14
Sig Strikes
22 / 32
42%
Sig Str %
68%
6 / 14
Total Strikes
23 / 33
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Paulo Costa22 / 3223 / 330 / 00
1Garreth McLellan6 / 146 / 140 / 10

Garreth McLellan

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11