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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Alessio Di Chirico won · S-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1434

Garreth McLellanvsAlessio Di ChiricoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · Saturday, August 27, 2016Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Alessio Di Chirico won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Garreth McLellan wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Alessio Di Chirico wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Garreth McLellan at +270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessio Di Chirico is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Garreth McLellan has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Alessio Di Chirico has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alessio Di Chirico has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Garreth McLellan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Garreth McLellan

Red Corner

Alessio Di Chirico

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1360

Elo

1434

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Garreth McLellanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bartosz Fabinski · Apr 15

KOvs Bubba Bush · Oct 15

KOvs Magnus Cedenblad · May 16

KOvs Paulo Costa · Mar 17

latest

Alessio Di ChiricoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Makhmud Muradov · Sep 19

vs Zak Cummings · Aug 20

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Jan 21

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Aug 21

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Garreth McLellanMetricAlessio Di Chirico

3.56

Strikes / min

3.32

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

45%

Strike defense

61%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

1.46

34%

Takedown defense

83%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Garreth McLellanAlessio Di Chirico

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Garreth McLellan(5 fights)Alessio Di Chirico(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -74.8|Blue +74.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Garreth McLellanTargetAlessio Di Chirico

By target zone

30% acc · 47%

Head

42% acc · 84%

57% acc · 40%

Body

64% acc · 11%

70% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

32% acc · 63%

Distance

40% acc · 59%

78% acc · 37%

Clinch

55% acc · 26%

Ground

53% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Garreth McLellan rounds

even

Alessio Di Chirico rounds

Round 1Garreth McLellan edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:12

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Alessio Di Chirico edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:57

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Alessio Di Chirico edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:34

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 139

Sig Strikes

61 / 136

39.7%

Sig Str %

45.3%

88 / 179

Total Strikes

114 / 198

2 / 8

TDs

2 / 6

19.3%

TD %

41.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:43

Ctrl Time

3:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alessio Di Chirico	17 / 47	28 / 60	0 / 1
1	Garreth McLellan	26 / 63	29 / 67	0 / 1
2	Alessio Di Chirico	29 / 61	44 / 83	1 / 1
2	Garreth McLellan	22 / 43	33 / 57	1 / 4
3	Alessio Di Chirico	15 / 28	42 / 55	1 / 4
3	Garreth McLellan	9 / 33	26 / 55	1 / 3

Garreth McLellan

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Alessio Di Chirico

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11