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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Gabriella Fernandes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1509

Elo1487

Gabriella FernandesvsJulija StoliarenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Saturday, August 9, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gabriella Fernandes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Gabriella Fernandes wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Gabriella Fernandes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriella Fernandes at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Gabriella Fernandes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gabriella Fernandes

Red Corner

Julija Stoliarenko

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+350

(22%)

1509

Elo

1487

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriella Fernandes

oldest →

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Feb 23

vs Tereza Bleda · Jun 23

vs Carli Judice · Jun 24

SUBvs Wang Cong · Nov 24

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Mar 26

latest

Julija Stoliarenko

oldest →

vs Alexis Davis · Feb 22

SUBvs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jul 22

KOvs Chelsea Chandler · Oct 22

SUBvs Molly McCann · Jul 23

KOvs Luana Carolina · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriella FernandesMetricJulija Stoliarenko

3.51

Strikes / min

2.74

5.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

53%

Strike defense

46%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

0.78

68%

Takedown defense

54%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.80evenly matched on net striking-1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriella FernandesJulija Stoliarenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriella Fernandes(6 fights)Julija Stoliarenko(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.1|Blue -22.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -294.0|Blue +294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriella FernandesTargetJulija Stoliarenko

By target zone

42% acc · 64%

Head

24% acc · 46%

88% acc · 25%

Body

65% acc · 21%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

83% acc · 33%

By position

52% acc · 98%

Distance

36% acc · 92%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

71% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriella Fernandes rounds

even

Julija Stoliarenko rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Gabriella Fernandes edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Julija Stoliarenko edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 114

Sig Strikes

61 / 161

52%

Sig Str %

38%

59 / 114

Total Strikes

64 / 167

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Julija Stoliarenko	19 / 47	19 / 49	0 / 2
1	Gabriella Fernandes	19 / 45	19 / 45	0 / 0
2	Julija Stoliarenko	18 / 43	19 / 44	0 / 2
2	Gabriella Fernandes	23 / 38	23 / 38	0 / 0
3	Julija Stoliarenko	24 / 71	26 / 74	0 / 2
3	Gabriella Fernandes	17 / 31	17 / 31	0 / 0

Gabriella Fernandes

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights6

Julija Stoliarenko

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9