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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Gonzaga won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Gabriel GonzagavsShawn JordanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Gonzaga won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:33

Style matchupGabriel Gonzaga: WrestlervsShawn Jordan: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Shawn Jordan wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Gabriel Gonzaga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shawn Jordan at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shawn Jordan is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 71% of fights by KO.
Gabriel Gonzaga has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Shawn Jordan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Gonzaga

Red Corner

Shawn Jordan

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel Gonzaga

oldest →

vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14

KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15

vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16

latest

Shawn Jordan

oldest →

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Mar 14

KOvs Jack May · Aug 14

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Jan 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 15

vs Ruslan Magomedov · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel GonzagaMetricShawn Jordan

2.12

Strikes / min

2.87

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

3.30

57%

Strike defense

47%

2.80

TDs / 15 min

1.97

66%

Takedown defense

76%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel GonzagaShawn Jordan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)Shawn Jordan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel GonzagaTargetShawn Jordan

By target zone

58% acc · 88%

Head

29% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

33% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 50%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Gonzaga rounds

even

Shawn Jordan rounds

Round 1Gabriel Gonzaga edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 16

Sig Strikes

2 / 7

50%

Sig Str %

28%

8 / 16

Total Strikes

2 / 7

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shawn Jordan	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Gabriel Gonzaga	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 0	0

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Shawn Jordan

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10