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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Mirko Cro Cop won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1490
Gabriel Gonzaga
Elo1490
Mirko Cro Cop

Gabriel GonzagavsMirko Cro CopUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · Saturday, April 11, 2015Krakow, Poland

Official fight result

Mirko Cro Cop won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:30

Model Prediction: Gabriel Gonzaga wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Mirko Cro Cop wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Gonzaga at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mirko Cro Cop enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mirko Cro Cop is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 71% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Mirko Cro Cop (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Gonzaga
Red Corner
VS
Mirko Cro Cop
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1490
Elo
1490
47
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel Gonzaga
oldest →
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Oct 13
L
vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14
W
vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16
latest
Mirko Cro CopL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Pat Barry · Jun 10
L
KOvs Frank Mir · Sep 10
L
KOvs Brendan Schaub · Mar 11
L
KOvs Roy Nelson · Oct 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel GonzagaMetricMirko Cro Cop
2.12
Strikes / min
—
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
—
57%
Strike defense
—
2.80
TDs / 15 min
—
66%
Takedown defense
—
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1494 vs 1473Strikes13.1 vs 21.5Takedowns1.0 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.53 vs 0.30Form-0.5 vs -0.8
Gabriel GonzagaMirko Cro Cop

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)Mirko Cro Cop(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -1141.0|Blue +1141.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Mirko Cro Cop

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3