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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1356

Gabriel GonzagavsMatt MitrioneUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Matt Mitrione won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:59

Style matchupGabriel Gonzaga: WrestlervsMatt Mitrione: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 71% of fights by KO.
Gabriel Gonzaga threatens submissions; Matt Mitrione has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
Matt Mitrione has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Gonzaga

Red Corner

Matt Mitrione

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1490

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel Gonzaga

oldest →

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Oct 13

vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14

KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15

vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16

latest

Matt MitrioneL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Schaub · Sep 13

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15

KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel GonzagaMetricMatt Mitrione

2.12

Strikes / min

3.55

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

57%

Strike defense

64%

2.80

TDs / 15 min

0.00

66%

Takedown defense

55%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel GonzagaMatt Mitrione

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.4|Blue -134.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +223.0|Blue -223.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel GonzagaTargetMatt Mitrione

By target zone

44% acc · 67%

Head

67% acc · 100%

67% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

54% acc · 58%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Gonzaga rounds

even

Matt Mitrione rounds

Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 12

Sig Strikes

12 / 18

50%

Sig Str %

66%

6 / 12

Total Strikes

13 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Mitrione	12 / 18	13 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Gabriel Gonzaga	6 / 12	6 / 12	0 / 0	0

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights13