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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Gonzaga won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1356

Gabriel GonzagavsKonstantin ErokhinUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · Friday, December 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Gonzaga won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Konstantin Erokhin wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Gabriel Gonzaga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Konstantin Erokhin at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Gonzaga

Red Corner

Konstantin Erokhin

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1490

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel GonzagaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Oct 13

vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14

KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16

latest

Konstantin Erokhin

oldest →

vs Viktor Pesta · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel GonzagaMetricKonstantin Erokhin

2.12

Strikes / min

1.07

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

1.83

57%

Strike defense

47%

2.80

TDs / 15 min

0.00

66%

Takedown defense

70%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel GonzagaKonstantin Erokhin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)Konstantin Erokhin(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.6|Blue -134.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel GonzagaTargetKonstantin Erokhin

By target zone

34% acc · 60%

Head

25% acc · 80%

80% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 20%

80% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

39% acc · 55%

Distance

27% acc · 87%

25% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 13%

62% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Gonzaga rounds

even

Konstantin Erokhin rounds

Round 1Gabriel Gonzaga edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:21

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gabriel Gonzaga edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:40

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 45

Sig Strikes

15 / 51

44.7%

Sig Str %

31.3%

29 / 55

Total Strikes

28 / 65

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

22%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:01

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Konstantin Erokhin	6 / 13	7 / 14	0 / 0
1	Gabriel Gonzaga	7 / 13	8 / 14	1 / 3
2	Konstantin Erokhin	6 / 26	6 / 26	0 / 0
2	Gabriel Gonzaga	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 1
3	Konstantin Erokhin	3 / 12	15 / 25	0 / 0
3	Gabriel Gonzaga	8 / 16	16 / 25	1 / 3

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Konstantin Erokhin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2