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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Gabriel Gonzaga won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Gabriel Gonzaga
Elo1352
Ednaldo Oliveira

Gabriel GonzagavsEdnaldo OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · Saturday, January 14, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Gabriel Gonzaga won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:22

Model Prediction: Gabriel Gonzaga wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Gabriel Gonzaga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Gonzaga at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gabriel Gonzaga threatens submissions; Ednaldo Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Gabriel Gonzaga has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Gonzaga
Red Corner
VS
Ednaldo Oliveira
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1490
Elo
1352
47
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'5"
193.04 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel Gonzaga
oldest →
L
vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14
L
KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15
W
vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16
latest
Ednaldo Oliveira
oldest →
L
vs Francimar Barroso · Aug 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel GonzagaMetricEdnaldo Oliveira
2.12
Strikes / min
1.03
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
1.80
57%
Strike defense
52%
2.80
TDs / 15 min
0.00
66%
Takedown defense
42%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1475 vs 1500Strikes15.3 vs —Takedowns1.1 vs —Sub Atts0.67 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Gabriel GonzagaEdnaldo Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)Ednaldo Oliveira(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.1|Blue -138.1
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel GonzagaTargetEdnaldo Oliveira

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 100%
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

1
17% acc · 50%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Gabriel Gonzaga rounds
0
even
0
Ednaldo Oliveira rounds
Round 1Gabriel Gonzaga edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns2
Control1:19
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 7
Sig Strikes
0 / 14
28%
Sig Str %
0%
4 / 9
Total Strikes
0 / 14
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:19
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ednaldo Oliveira0 / 140 / 140 / 00
1Gabriel Gonzaga2 / 74 / 92 / 21

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Ednaldo Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach—
Fights2