Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Gabriel Gonzaga won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Gabriel Gonzaga
Elo1352
Dave Herman

Gabriel GonzagavsDave HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · Saturday, July 6, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Gonzaga won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:17

Style matchupGabriel Gonzaga: WrestlervsDave Herman: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Gonzaga wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Gabriel Gonzaga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Gonzaga at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dave Herman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Dave Herman is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 71% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Gonzaga
Red Corner
VS
Dave Herman
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1490
Elo
1352
47
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'4"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel Gonzaga
oldest →
L
vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14
L
KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15
W
vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16
latest
Dave HermanL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jon Olav Einemo · Jun 11
L
KOvs Stefan Struve · Feb 12
L
KOvs Roy Nelson · May 12
L
SUBvs Minotauro Nogueira · Oct 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel GonzagaMetricDave Herman
2.12
Strikes / min
4.98
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
57%
Strike defense
48%
2.80
TDs / 15 min
1.49
66%
Takedown defense
58%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 2.02 — meaningful gap+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1491 vs 1473Strikes13.5 vs 30.5Takedowns1.2 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.00Form-0.0 vs -0.8
Gabriel GonzagaDave Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)Dave Herman(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.2|Blue -138.2
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -182.0|Blue +182.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel GonzagaTargetDave Herman

By target zone

3
100% acc · 100%
Head
0
0
Body
2
100% acc · 67%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 33%

By position

1
100% acc · 33%
Distance
3
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 67%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Gabriel Gonzaga rounds
0
even
0
Dave Herman rounds
Round 1Gabriel Gonzaga edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
3 / 3
Sig Strikes
3 / 3
100%
Sig Str %
100%
5 / 5
Total Strikes
3 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dave Herman3 / 33 / 30 / 00
1Gabriel Gonzaga3 / 35 / 50 / 00

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Dave Herman

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights5