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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Gonzaga won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1494

Gabriel GonzagavsBen RothwellUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · Saturday, January 19, 2013Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Gabriel Gonzaga won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:01

Style matchupGabriel Gonzaga: WrestlervsBen Rothwell: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ben Rothwell wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Gabriel Gonzaga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Rothwell at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Gonzaga has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Gonzaga

Red Corner

Ben Rothwell

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1490

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel Gonzaga

oldest →

vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14

KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15

vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16

latest

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel GonzagaMetricBen Rothwell

2.12

Strikes / min

3.71

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

4.63

57%

Strike defense

47%

2.80

TDs / 15 min

0.68

66%

Takedown defense

70%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel GonzagaBen Rothwell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)Ben Rothwell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.6|Blue +3.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel GonzagaTargetBen Rothwell

By target zone

55% acc · 65%

Head

40% acc · 83%

71% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 53%

Distance

41% acc · 75%

67% acc · 47%

Clinch

60% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Gonzaga rounds

even

Ben Rothwell rounds

Round 1Gabriel Gonzaga edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control2:17

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 28

Sig Strikes

12 / 27

59%

Sig Str %

40%

20 / 31

Total Strikes

15 / 32

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

37%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Rothwell	10 / 21	13 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Gabriel Gonzaga	13 / 21	16 / 24	3 / 8	0
2	Ben Rothwell	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Gabriel Gonzaga	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	1

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16