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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Bonfim won · SUB R1

Elo1565

Elo1490

Gabriel BonfimvsTrevin GilesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Bonfim won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:13

Style matchupGabriel Bonfim: WrestlervsTrevin Giles: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins(74.0%)

Actual result: Gabriel Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Bonfim at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Bonfim enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gabriel Bonfim threatens submissions; Trevin Giles has lost 43% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Bonfim

Red Corner

Trevin Giles

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1565

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel BonfimW5 streak

oldest →

vs Ange Loosa · Jul 24

SUBvs Khaos Williams · Feb 25

vs Stephen Thompson · Jul 25

KOvs Randy Brown · Nov 25

DECvs Belal Muhammad · Jun 26

latest

Trevin GilesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Jan 22

vs Louis Cosce · Sep 22

vs Preston Parsons · Mar 23

KOvs Carlos Prates · Feb 24

vs Mike Malott · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel BonfimMetricTrevin Giles

4.61

Strikes / min

3.17

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.39

63%

Strike defense

58%

3.60

TDs / 15 min

1.07

76%

Takedown defense

72%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93evenly matched on net striking+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel BonfimTrevin Giles

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Bonfim(8 fights)Trevin Giles(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +75.5|Blue -75.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel BonfimTargetTrevin Giles

By target zone

20% acc · 67%

Head

20% acc · 100%

100% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

By position

27% acc · 100%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Bonfim rounds

even

Trevin Giles rounds

Round 1Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:26

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 11

Sig Strikes

1 / 5

27%

Sig Str %

20%

3 / 11

Total Strikes

1 / 5

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trevin Giles	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Gabriel Bonfim	3 / 11	3 / 11	1 / 1	1

Gabriel Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Trevin Giles

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14