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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Gabriel Bonfim won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1565

Elo1498

Gabriel BonfimvsRandy BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Saturday, November 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Bonfim won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:40

Style matchupGabriel Bonfim: WrestlervsRandy Brown: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Gabriel Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Bonfim at -164 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Bonfim enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Gabriel Bonfim has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Randy Brown has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Bonfim

Red Corner

Randy Brown

Blue Corner

-164

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+138

(42%)

1565

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel BonfimW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Nov 23

vs Ange Loosa · Jul 24

SUBvs Khaos Williams · Feb 25

vs Stephen Thompson · Jul 25

DECvs Belal Muhammad · Jun 26

latest

Randy Brown

oldest →

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Feb 24

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel BonfimMetricRandy Brown

4.61

Strikes / min

4.39

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

63%

Strike defense

53%

3.60

TDs / 15 min

0.71

76%

Takedown defense

74%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93evenly matched on net striking+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel BonfimRandy Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Bonfim(8 fights)Randy Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.5|Blue -67.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel BonfimTargetRandy Brown

By target zone

31% acc · 31%

Head

23% acc · 33%

100% acc · 3%

Body

43% acc · 27%

85% acc · 66%

Leg

72% acc · 39%

By position

53% acc · 94%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Bonfim rounds

even

Randy Brown rounds

Round 1Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 64

Sig Strikes

33 / 87

53.5%

Sig Str %

42%

35 / 64

Total Strikes

33 / 87

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Randy Brown	19 / 61	19 / 61	0 / 0
1	Gabriel Bonfim	24 / 43	24 / 43	0 / 0
2	Randy Brown	14 / 26	14 / 26	0 / 0
2	Gabriel Bonfim	11 / 21	11 / 21	0 / 0

Gabriel Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21