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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nicolas Dalby won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1565

Elo1508

Gabriel BonfimvsNicolas DalbyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 4, 2023Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Nicolas Dalby won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:33

Style matchupGabriel Bonfim: WrestlervsNicolas Dalby: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Nicolas Dalby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Bonfim at -500 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Bonfim enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gabriel Bonfim has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gabriel Bonfim has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Bonfim

Red Corner

Nicolas Dalby

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1565

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel BonfimW5 streak

oldest →

vs Ange Loosa · Jul 24

SUBvs Khaos Williams · Feb 25

vs Stephen Thompson · Jul 25

KOvs Randy Brown · Nov 25

DECvs Belal Muhammad · Jun 26

latest

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Warlley Alves · Jan 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel BonfimMetricNicolas Dalby

4.61

Strikes / min

3.88

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

63%

Strike defense

52%

3.60

TDs / 15 min

0.90

76%

Takedown defense

59%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93evenly matched on net striking+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel BonfimNicolas Dalby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Bonfim(8 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.9|Blue -56.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel BonfimTargetNicolas Dalby

By target zone

35% acc · 69%

Head

43% acc · 77%

75% acc · 8%

Body

64% acc · 13%

90% acc · 23%

Leg

83% acc · 9%

By position

45% acc · 82%

Distance

33% acc · 47%

33% acc · 8%

Clinch

76% acc · 47%

36% acc · 10%

Ground

75% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Bonfim rounds

even

Nicolas Dalby rounds

Round 1Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control2:32

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:47

Knockdowns0

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 91

Sig Strikes

53 / 113

39.5%

Sig Str %

45%

47 / 103

Total Strikes

64 / 128

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:19

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nicolas Dalby	16 / 47	22 / 55	0 / 1	0
1	Gabriel Bonfim	30 / 60	35 / 68	1 / 1	0
2	Nicolas Dalby	37 / 66	42 / 73	0 / 0	0
2	Gabriel Bonfim	9 / 31	12 / 35	2 / 4	1

Gabriel Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14